The future research of the province according to the national development document and land planning

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Department of Social Sciences, Farhangian University of Ilam

10.22034/farhang.2024.375553.1674

Abstract

The problem of reducing the fertility rate in recent decades in Iran and formulating appropriate policies to improve it has been one of the main challenges of policymakers in the social sphere. The purpose of the current research is to study the future of the population of the province until 1420 based on possible scenarios. For this purpose, in order to achieve the goal of the research, while determining the required assumptions, using the secondary analysis method and with the help of Spectrum software, population forecasting is done by age, gender, urban and rural groups for the cities of the province. done. The selected scenario is based on the continuation of the current trend of fertility, mortality and migration of the province. The future demographic developments of the province show that the population of the province has structurally entered the stage of old age and the share of the elderly population will increase significantly and the population under 15 years will decrease and this will cause problems in the regeneration process. Such a trend can be observed among the cities of the province.

Keywords

a scientific journal of ilam culture
Volume 24, 80,81 - Serial Number 80
February 2024
Pages 133-154

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